Economic briefings on key industry issues

In Brief

Traffic Forecast 2007-2011
Passenger and freight demand growth will continue to provide a positive boost to airline revenues over the five years to 2011.
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Air Freight Market Outook 2007
Key trends and outlook for the air freight market over the years ahead.
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Airline Profitability 2006
Analysis of changes in airline operating profitability over the last year and ranking of top 30 most profitable airlines.
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Airline Fuel and Labour Costs
Fuel has replaced labour as the largest single cost item for the global airline industry in 2006.
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WATS 51st Edition
The 2007 World Air Transport Statistics show that strong, but slower, traffic growth and efficiency improvements led to improved financial performance for the world's airlines in 2006.
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Aircraft Orders 2006
Aircraft orders have dropped slightly from 2005's record total but still remain high. Deliveries are being well managed compared to previous cycles.
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UK APD Increase
Climate benefits of £53 million versus GDP losses of £400 million plus losses to air travellers suggest this policy has not been put to a cost-benefit test. It may provide the Chancellor with an extra £1 billion in revenues and enhances his green credentials but it makes little economic sense.
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Traffic Forecast 2006 - 2010
The airline industry is forecast to see a period of slower but more profitable growth over the next five years.
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Premium Traffic Briefing
Sustained growth in traffic over 18 months. Premium traffic 11% of total international and 14-15% on long-haul routes. Growth on Europe-Asia and Middle East routes, but intra-Europe declining. Impacted by terrorist threat and US-led economic slowdown.
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European Aviation Taxes
Airlne passengers are already highly taxed in Europe. IATA estimates that the tax burden was at least €5.9 billion in 2004.
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Profitability: Does Size Matter?
Last year eight airlines made operating profits over $500m, three earning more than $1bn. However, there is no correlation of size with profit margins and only a slight link with operating profits.
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Airport Regulation 
A good airport regulatory structure - providing better rather than just increased regulation - can benefit both airports and airlines in terms of greater efficiency and low and stable financing costs.
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The value added by airlines
The value added by the global airline industry is estimated to be $140 to 145 billion in 2004. However, little of the value created accrued to financial investors in the industry.
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New aircraft orders
Peak aircraft deliveries in 1991 and 1999 were followed by a slump in airline profitability. Delivery of the record aircraft orders in 2005 are spread out over time and concentrated in fast growing Asian markets. Some risks remain.
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Air freight prospects improving
Air freight transports goods worth over $3 trillion annually, but volumes slowed sharply last year. An economic recovery in Europe, the largest market, and in the key IT sector, in Asia, promise stronger freight growth in 2006.
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Airline profitability; US versus the rest
US airlines generated all of the $42 billion of net losses suffered by the global airline industry during 2001-2005. But it's not just a US problem. Even the profits made outside the US were insufficient to pay investors a 'normal' return on capital.
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Air travel for the rich or mass transportation?
Governments treat air transport as a luxury good. This is no longer true. The evidence is that over the past 30 years citizens from the middle-income groups have come to dominate travel markets.
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The cost of EU regulation
The annual cost to EU airlines of the regulations imposed on them in Europe is estimated to be at least €5.9 billion. Since 2001 this financial burden has risen by more than €2.5 billion.
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In Depth

Air Travel Demand
The impact on demand of every air transport policy decision is an essential consideration. Without it, uncertainty over demand leads to ineffective or counter-productive decisions.
Summary report (pdf)
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Intervistas report (pdf)

Economic Benefits for Latin America
Reports for five Latin American economies showing the substiantial economic benefits generated by air transport.
Bolivia (pdf)       Chile (pdf)
Colombia (pdf)   Mexico (pdf)
Panama (pdf)

Aviation Economic Benefits
Improvements in a country’s level of connectivity to the air transport network can significantly boost its long-term level of productivity and economic growth. This boost is potentially highest amongst developing countries.
Summary report (pdf)
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Airline Liberalisation
Greater commercial freedom for airlines is vital for the long-term health of the industry and for the global economy. This research discusses the example of liberalisation in other industries and the potential implications for the aviation industry.
Summary report (pdf)
Oxera research report (pdf)
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Economic Regulation
The case for independent economic regulation of airports and air navigation service providers (ANSPs) is clear. It improves efficiency and productivity throughout the aviation industry and it encourages timely and cost-effective new investment.
Summary (pdf)
Summary Europe (pdf)
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Airline Cost Performance
Cost efficiency is critical for an airline's ability to compete and survive. Yet not every airline should seek to be the lowest cost operator. There are still competitive advantages in an efficiently-delivered network model.
Summary report (pdf)
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Value Chain Profitability
The airline industry has been unable to generate sufficient returns for existing investors. Unless invested capital is used more effectively - and returns improved - future investment will either be constrained or delivered inefficiently or both.
Summary report (pdf)
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Airline network benefits
Governments considering taxing or constraining aviation risk damaging business and economic development. New survey and statistical evidence demonstrates that the airline network is a key asset for economic development.
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Aviation taxes and charges
Evidence from Europe demonstrates that aviation is not under-taxed compared to other modes of transport, once payments for the cost of infrastructure are taken into account.
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Airport privatisation
Ten key lessons for future airport privatisation, drawn from a study of the successes and failures of past privatisation of twelve airports in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
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